https://sentity.co/notes.html Market notes written in the moment, before the outcome is known. en-us https://sentity.co/notes/2026-09-23.html https://sentity.co/notes/2026-09-23.html Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Warsh did it. On 16 September the FOMC raised the funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75–4%, the first hike in more than three years, on a unanimous 12–0 vote. His line at the press conference: inflation has been "too high for too long." Sixteen of eighteen participants expect another… https://sentity.co/notes/2026-09-10.html https://sentity.co/notes/2026-09-10.html Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Here is my base case, stated plainly so I can be held to it later. https://sentity.co/notes/2026-09-01.html https://sentity.co/notes/2026-09-01.html Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 AI has discovered the bond market. What used to come out of operating cash flow — data centers, power, chips — now increasingly arrives as issued debt, and it comes in size. That paper competes for the same pool of savings as everything else, and the largest borrower in that pool is the U.S.… https://sentity.co/notes/2026-08-29.html https://sentity.co/notes/2026-08-29.html Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Warsh gave his first Jackson Hole speech as Chair on Friday, and it was about as hawkish as a Fed Chair gets without pre-committing to anything. He called the 2 percent PCE objective "a firm, fixed target." On the better summer prints, he refused the obvious dovish read: